Global macro overview for 24/10/2017

President Donald Trump said that he is "very, very close" to announcing his nominee for chairman of the Fed. Trump is considering Stanford University economist John Taylor and Fed Governor Jerome Powell, although Fed Chair Janet Yellen could be reappointed (but it's clear that Yellen is never a favorite of Trump). Reportedly, Trump's advisors are trying to persuade him to choose between Taylor and Powell. The former is considered by the markets as a hawk and if appointed as Fed chairman it would provide the US dollar with a boost on the back of market speculations that the pace of monetary policy tightening may accelerate. Replacing Yellen with Powell would imply that the Fed will continue to raise rates gradually as Powell is rather a cautious dove. Another potential scenario is that Powell will become chairman with Taylor as vice-chairman. Soon we will find out.

The USD remains also sensitive to progress in the US budget procedure developments, which will open the way for tax reform. The House of Representatives may approve the budget on Thursday, which would be a fresh injection of optimism for the Dollar.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture. The market has bounced from the golden trend line support at the level of 93.06 and now is heading towards the recent local high at the level of 94.26. This is the key level for bulls, so it needs to be violated in impulsive fashion as there is no doubt the breakout is genuine.


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