Global macro overview for 12/09/2017

Global macro overview for 12/09/2017:

The Australian NAB Business Confidence data decreased unexpectedly in August. According to the National Australia Bank survey (a survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia based on a pool of hundreds of small and large sized companies), the index deteriorated from 12 to 5, while market participants expected a number of 10 to be delivered in the reported month.

This reading is the weakest one in 2017, indicating the biggest concerns surrounding government policy, consumer demand as well as both wages and energy cost pressures. Moreover, the report showed most industries performed well, while retail sectors conditions continued to stay on negative territory. However, NAB also highlighted that the retail price index dipped into negative territory after steady falls in recent months. This trend is set to be watched closely to determine further growth trends: "We will be watching this trend closely as household consumption is a notable point of difference between our relatively subdued growth outlook and the RBA's more sanguine forecasts," NAB said in the official report. In conclusion, after a one month of data is hard to anticipate much into it. The index still holds close to the multi-year highs and only a further deterioration in sentiment below the zero level would change the outlook for more negative.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price had deteriorated recently from the multi-month highs at the level of 0.8125 and now is back in the congestion zone. Nevertheless, as long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated (around 61% Fibo support at 0.7928) the short-term outlook remains bullish.

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