Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD for August 22, 2017

GBP/USD has been quite bearish recently after breaking below the 1.2950 level. There has been a good amount of correction in this pair, before it broke out. There has been lack of positive news from the United Kigdom and lack of support from the ECB after the Brexit, so the pound fails to gain over the US dollar. Today the United Kingdom published the CBI Industrial Order Expectations report with an increase figure at 13 from the previous figure of 10 which was expected to decrease to 8. Despite the better economic report, GBP failed to gain over USD which signals weakness of the British currency. Speaking about news from the US, today the HPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase slightly to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.4%. Besides, the Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected to decrease to 11 from the previous figure of 14. Though the expectations of the USD reports are quite mixed, any better-than-expected data will cause further gains on the USD side in the coming days. Moreover, the US rate hike announcement and Yellen's speech are expected this week so USD may get additional support to rise against GBP.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently broken below the trend line of March 2017 and retested it as well, which is expected to provide more bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price breaks below 1.2800-1.2750 support area with a daily close, further bearish move with a target towards 1.2550 is expected to be hit in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price remains above the 1.2800-1.2750 support area with a daily close, then we can see bullish intervention in the process. As the price remains below 1.2950, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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