Fundamental Analysis of AUDJPY for August 3, 2017

AUD has been quite weak recently in comparison to JPY, which led to a drastic fall to 87.50 after an impulsive breakout. This week the RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statement were revealed, where the cash rate was announced to be unchanged at 1.50, which affected the growth of the currency against JPY recently. As the global economic boom is knocking at the door, most of the global economies are looking forward to a rate hike where Australia seems to be lagging showing no intention to have a rate hike in the recent future. Today Australia's Trade Balance report was published with a worse figure at 0.86B from the previous figure of 2.02B, which was expected to be at 1.78B at least. The weak report made AUD fall drastically today against the JPY. Trade Balance is the export demand and currency demand, which is directly related to each other; the worst figure showed lower exports and higher imports, which is bad for the economy. On the other hand, JPY has been quite stable with its recent economic reports showing unchanged and mixed economic reports in comparison to AUD. Tomorrow, Average Cash Earning report is going to be published. It is expected to show a decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%, but any positive change is expected to help JPY gain ground against AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of support level 87.50 and dynamic level support of 20 EMA as well. The trend is still bullish and a daily close above 87.50 will provide confirmation for further bullish move in this pair with a target towards the 90.50 resistance level. If the price remains above the 86.00 level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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