Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for June 29, 2017

NZD/USD has been quite volatile due to a streak of negative economic reports from New Zealand. Recently, the trade balance report was published at 103M which previously was at 536M. The balance was expected to be at 420M. As export demand and currency demand are directly linked, the negative report is expected to put the New Zealand dollar under pressure in the coming days. Today ANZ Business Confidence report showed a rise to 24.8 which previously was at 14.9 but it failed to help NZD gain over USD today. On the USD side, the final GDP report is to be published in the US today. It is expected to be unchanged at 1.2%. The weekly jobless claims are also expected to be unchanged at 241k. If these economic reports provide positive data today, then we might see USD gaining over NZD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has already shown a good amount of rejection already today and is expected to decline further towards 20 EMA before proceeding up towards the resistance at 0.7370. If the price breaks below 20 EMA with a daily close, then we will shift our bullish bias to bearish with a downward target towards 0.7050 support level.

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