Global macro overview for 15/04/2016:
The Crude Oil Inventories data came as a big surprise when the stockpiles jumped to 6634k from -4937k a week ago. Nevertheless, the recent report from the EIA Institute suggest some analysts predict that in the second part of the year, the global surplus of crude oil will fall drastically (this may be an impulse for a further rebound in oil prices, even around $50 per barrel). Clearly, this weekend's meeting in Doha might be a breakthrough in negotiations regarding the output freeze as Russia said it sees a deal to freeze oil output as possible when it meets other producers, regardless of whether Iran - which has said it plans to boost output - joins the deal. In conclusion, this might be the most important OPEC and non-OPEC countries' meeting this year and it is worth to keep an eye on its outcome.
Let's now take a look at the technical picture of crude oil on the H4 time frame. The market rallied during the entire last week and managed to break above the 21.50 and 100 moving averages. Currently, it is trading near the record-high levels of the year and if OPEC seals the deal at this weekend's meeting, then the bulls might rally even higher towards the psychological level of $50 a barrel.
